TECHNICAL UPDATE: Latest on EUR/NZD – Tested trendline support
Updated Oct 26, 2012 4:45:00 PM Written by Chris Tevere, CMT
EUR/NZD continued to move lower over the past 24-hours and tested trendline support, drawn from the August low, around 1.5695. Furthermore, daily RSI appears to have broken below corresponding trendline support. Currently, the pair is trading around the 50-day sma (1.5725), but a move towards the daily Ichimoku Cloud Top, as well as 38.2% retracement between 1.5440/50 seems plausible early next week. This would also likely complete the 5-wave move lower – see original hourly chart (in yellow) below, of the Elliot Wave count and a 3-wave correction may follow thereafter.
Chart Source: Forex Charts by eSignal
TECHNICAL UPDATE: EUR/NZD – Failure above 1.60 sets stage for sub-1.55
Updated Oct 25, 2012 6:15:00 PM
EUR/NZD has begun to show the downward acceleration that I was looking for 10 days ago – See TECHNICAL UPDATE. Ultimately, very little has changed from a technical perspective, however it appears the shorter-term (hourly) and longer-term (daily) time frames have aligned. Moreover, we have identified 3 different points of reference to potentially trade against – 1.5895 (13 & 200-day sma’s), 1.5905/10 (October 19th low) & 1.6060 (October 16th high).
That said, here’s a few technical bullets on why I believe EUR/NZD downside could prevail:
Updated Oct 25, 2012 6:15:00 PM
EUR/NZD has begun to show the downward acceleration that I was looking for 10 days ago – See TECHNICAL UPDATE. Ultimately, very little has changed from a technical perspective, however it appears the shorter-term (hourly) and longer-term (daily) time frames have aligned. Moreover, we have identified 3 different points of reference to potentially trade against – 1.5895 (13 & 200-day sma’s), 1.5905/10 (October 19th low) & 1.6060 (October 16th high).
That said, here’s a few technical bullets on why I believe EUR/NZD downside could prevail:
- Saw a daily RSI bearish divergence into the 1.6055/60 high
- Continued to get rebuffed by the 50% retracement
- 13-day sma is crossing in-between daily 144 & 169 EMA’s while price is below (bearish)
- Sees hourly RSI bullish divergence (see yellow highlight)
- Elliot Wave Count in the midst of wave-4 up
- EW Count invalid if above 1.5910 (wave-1 low) as well as 61.8% retracement
- Watch for potential daily RSI trendline break in advance to price (leading indicator)
- Prior October low resides near 1.5470
- Bottom of daily Ichimoku Cloud is 1.5435/40
Chart Source: Forex Charts by eSignal
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